Robust household consumption and solid public investment supported GDP growth of more than 5% in 2019. These trends are expected to persist in the medium term. President Jokowi’s re-election in April 2019 supports policy continuity, including through investment in infrastructure and social support programmes, reducing red tape to attract foreign investment, maintaining robust public finances, expanding free trade agreements and strengthening institutions. But a volatile external environment that is hurting exports and commodity prices poses downside risk to the near-term outlook.
Longer term, favourable demographics and an expanding middle class bode well for consumption growth. But sustaining robust growth rests on the Jokowi administration’s ability to execute its reform agenda. Reforms have helped Indonesia become the first trillion dollar economy in Southeast Asia, while the sovereign credit rating has risen to investment grade status again. Addressing large infrastructure needs will remain important; logistics expenses are equivalent to 24% of GDP, compared to 13% in Malaysia.