Real GDP grew at more than 6% through 2018 and 2019, thanks to recovery in commodity prices and growing coal demand from China. The IMF projects growth to slow to 5.4% in 2020 from 6.5% in 2019, as export growth moderates and production at Oyu Tolgoi faces delays in part due to cost overruns and development challenges. But a unanimous parliamentary resolution on the 2009 Oyu Tolgoi investment agreement passed in November 2019 provides some confidence that development of the Oyu Tolgoi project enjoys sustained government support.
Longer term, Mongolia’s favourable demographic profile and mineral wealth support robust growth prospects. But economic diversification will be important to ensure sustainable and inclusive growth.