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In our final bulletin for the year, we look back at 2016 and forward to 2017…

With political outcomes in 2016 reflecting a growing dissatisfaction with the status quo, the range of possible outcomes for the world economy in 2017 is also changing markedly. Many forecasters now see a base case of stronger growth, driven by proposed higher infrastructure and defence spending from President-elect, Mr Donald Trump. But there are also a range of new and heightened risks to consider. We look at the tidal shifts of 2016 below, then discuss 12 risks that lurk in 2017—nine to the downside and three to the up.

We look at the following stories:

  • Triumph of hope over experience?
  • Poor global prospects fuel growing nationalism
  • Italy rejects reforms
  • Indonesia embraces reform; Iran and Myanmar are welcomed back
  • Commodity prices make late revival
  • Outlook for 2017—moderate recovery marred by downside risk
  • Risks
  • Opportunities
  • What this means for Australia’s export outlook

 

Cassandra Winzenried, Senior Economist
cwinzenried@exportfinance.gov.au

Fred Gibson, Economist

fgibson@exportfinance.gov.au

 

The views expressed in World Risk Developments are Export Finance Australia’s. They do not represent the views of the Australian Government. The information in this report is published for general information only and does not comprise advice or a recommendation of any kind.  While Export Finance Australia endeavours to ensure this information is accurate and current at the time of publication, Export Finance Australia makes no representation or warranty as to its reliability, accuracy or completeness.  To the maximum extent permitted by law, Export Finance Australia will not be liable to you or any other person for any loss or damage suffered or incurred by any person arising from any act, or failure to act, on the basis of any information or opinions contained in this report.