In our final bulletin for the year, we look back at 2016 and forward to 2017…

With political outcomes in 2016 reflecting a growing dissatisfaction with the status quo, the range of possible outcomes for the world economy in 2017 is also changing markedly. Many forecasters now see a base case of stronger growth, driven by proposed higher infrastructure and defence spending from President-elect, Mr Donald Trump. But there are also a range of new and heightened risks to consider. We look at the tidal shifts of 2016 below, then discuss 12 risks that lurk in 2017—nine to the downside and three to the up.

We look at the following stories:

  • Triumph of hope over experience?
  • Poor global prospects fuel growing nationalism
  • Italy rejects reforms
  • Indonesia embraces reform; Iran and Myanmar are welcomed back
  • Commodity prices make late revival
  • Outlook for 2017—moderate recovery marred by downside risk
  • Risks
  • Opportunities
  • What this means for Australia’s export outlook


Cassandra Winzenried, Senior Economist

Fred Gibson, Economist


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