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Australia—Education exports resilient amid demand headwinds
Education is Australia’s fourth largest category of export (behind iron ore, coal and natural gas), reaching a record $52 billion in 2024 or 41% of total services exports. The number of international student enrolments remains high, at 817,000 over the year to May, a 1% increase on 2024 (and an 18% increase on 2019). Emerging Asia comprises three quarters of international enrolments, with students from China and India the largest cohorts (Chart). Following pent-up demand caused by closed borders in 2020 and 2021, continued strong demand reflects global population growth, Australia’s popularity as an international student destination, a relatively competitive Australian dollar and relatively resilient household disposable incomes in Asia. Indeed, emerging Asian countries are expected to contribute two thirds of global economic growth this year, as they did last year. China and India will remain among the world’s fastest growing major economies, expanding 4.8% and 6.4% this year respectively, according to latest IMF forecasts.
However, growth in the number of international students onshore has slowed on the back of tighter visa rules, as expected. Since the peak in FY2023, the number of student visas lodged has fallen 28% to 427,000 in FY2025, while the number of student visas granted has fallen 36% to 372,000. Similarly, international student commencements declined by 15% over the year to May on the same period in 2024, to 241,000. Australia has tightened processing standards and increased requirements for applicants, including via proof of savings and English language requirements. Visa application fees have been increased and a cap on how many hours international students can work has been reintroduced. That said, temporary student visa arrivals have generally exceeded departures in recent months, according to Australian Bureau of Statistics data, suggesting the number of students onshore continues to increase.
