World Risk Developments

World Risk Developments

• World Risk Developments 2022
  • World Risk Developments September 2022
    • China—Extreme weather events compound economic challenges
    • Emerging Markets—Higher borrowing costs worsen debt vulnerabilities
    • Vietnam—Bright economic outlook raises investment opportunities
    • Australia—Increasing regional solar uptake offers export opportunities
    • Saudi Arabia—Economic outperformance and ambitious reform agenda
    • PNG—Prime Minister’s re-election indicates political and policy stability
  • World Risk Developments August 2022
    • World—Easing supply problems and commodity prices could reduce high inflation pressures
    • China—Property market downturn raises economic and financial risks
    • Australia—Services exports rising gradually following border reopening
    • Japan—Weaker yen and higher inflation hit consumers and businesses
    • World—Russian gas cut would raise global energy prices, dent growth
    • World—Another La Niña may further disrupt food output and lift prices
  • World Risk Developments July 2022
    • United States—Soaring inflation raises economic and financial risks
    • China—Policy support to boost a sharply slowing economy
    • Germany—Europe’s faltering export powerhouse raises recession risk
    • Chile—Draft constitution may erode investment climate
    • Africa—Large upcoming debt maturities raise refinancing risk
    • Fiji—Strong tourism recovery boosts growth prospects
  • World Risk Developments June 2022
    • Advanced Economies—Declining real wages erode consumer spending
    • Emerging Markets—Tight financial conditions dent economic prospects
    • Australia—Record agricultural exports but rising global food insecurity
    • Asia—Fading export engine hits economic recoveries
    • Papua New Guinea—Progress on gas projects, but election risks loom
    • Turkey—High inflation and low interest rates threaten economic crisis
  • World Risk Developments May 2022
    • Emerging Markets—Asia most at risk from China slowdown
    • World—Multiple economic headwinds raise recession risk
    • World—Foreign investment jumps as Australia invests more in Asia
    • Australia—Exporters face rising costs and ongoing supply disruptions
    • United Kingdom—High energy prices drive stagflation
    • Philippines—New President to maintain infrastructure investment drive
  • World Risk Developments April 2022
    • Australia—Record resources and energy exports drive investment
    • Asia-Pacific—Tourism rebound limited by China’s mobility restrictions
    • Australia—Trade agreement with India boosts export opportunities
    • World—Chip shortages create persistent challenge for manufacturers
    • World—Prolonged high fertiliser prices could worsen food insecurity
    • Pakistan—Political uncertainty raises economic and financial risks
  • World Risk Developments March 2022
    • Australia—Ukraine invasion weighs on non-resources export outlook
    • Emerging markets—High food prices raise social risks
    • Global—High energy prices dent growth, complicate monetary policy
    • Emerging markets—Higher interest rates increase debt distress risks
    • Hong Kong—COVID outbreak exacerbates economic challenges
    • Australia—Exports find new markets amid Chinese trade disruptions
  • World Risk Developments February 2022
    • Global—Omicron slows economic recovery, as risks to growth rise
    • Australia—Higher global inflation and interest rates add risks to exports
    • Global—Supply chain pressures may have peaked
    • China—Growth moderates as COVID-19 challenges loom
    • India—Infrastructure push may increase growth potential
    • Indonesia—Faster economic growth faces headwinds in 2022
• World Risk Developments 2021
  • World Risk Developments December 2021
    • 2021—Exports rise amid strong world demand and commodity prices
    • 2022—Global economic recovery to continue at a slower pace
    • Economic prospects are highly uncertain and likely to disappoint
    • Exports outlook—Ongoing commodities strength, as services recover
  • World Risk Developments November 2021
    • World—Economic growth will be constrained by supply into 2022
    • Emerging markets—Australia’s major export markets recovering, but risks remain high
    • Australia—Net zero emissions by 2050 would alter export profile
    • Australia—Exports resilient to geopolitical shocks
    • Emerging markets—Public spending cuts to weigh on economic growth
    • Indonesia—Reform momentum will help sustain economic recovery
  • World Risk Developments October 2021
    • World—Strong economic momentum slips while uncertainty rises
    • Australia—Energy demand drives record-high commodities exports
    • China—Common prosperity may accelerate shift to consumption
    • Major export markets—Better governance supports Australia’s exports
    • US—Debt limit uncertainty raises economic and fiscal risks
    • UAE—Diversification efforts accelerate amid decarbonisation targets
  • World Risk Developments September 2021
    • China—Heavily leveraged property sector poses a risk to economic outlook
    • Emerging markets—Interest rate hikes compound growth challenges
    • Australia—Higher prices and bumper harvest to drive a record $54.7 billion of agriculture exports
    • Thailand—Reopening signals beginning of protracted tourism recovery
    • Guinea—Military’s assumption of power may impact on commodity markets
    • Low-income countries—IMF support boosts recovery prospects
  • World Risk Developments August 2021
    • Emerging Asia—Delta outbreak threatens economic recovery
    • US—Expected stimulus continues to drive global economic prospects
    • Asia—Elevated B2B payment delays indicate business stress
    • Vietnam—Easing geopolitical risks boost trade and investment outlook
    • Global—Policy shifts to curb demand for carbon-intensive commodities
    • Malaysia—Pandemic and political uncertainty weaken economic outlook
  • World Risk Developments July 2021
    • China—Slowing domestic economy prompts fresh stimulus
    • Australia—Multilateralism supports exports, despite Chinese distortions
    • Australia—Demand for iron ore and base metals lifts resources exports
    • Emerging Asia—Exports and financial buffers support resilience to US rate hikes
    • Pacific—Lagging in the worsening global two-track recovery
    • South Africa—Social unrest undermines business confidence
  • World Risk Developments June 2021
    • Southeast Asia—Variants and lagging vaccinations frustrate recovery
    • Australia—Proposed pilot plans may support education exports
    • Australia—Free trade agreement with UK to boost export opportunities
    • Australia—Container shipping delays and costs frustrate export outlook
    • PNG—Progress on Papua LNG development brightens economic prospects
    • Chile—COVID-19 cases surge despite high vaccination rate
  • World Risk Developments May 2021
    • Australia—Iron ore to China drives export performance
    • India—Surging COVID-19 infections hit recovery
    • World—Savings stockpile may boost post-COVID export prospects
    • South Korea—Solid manufacturing recovery benefits Australian exports
    • Philippines—Recovery fragile following largest recession in history
    • Colombia—Civil unrest as pandemic accentuates social discontent
  • World Risk Developments April 2021
    • World—Economic prospects improve, but diverge
    • Emerging markets—US fiscal stimulus could boost export opportunities
    • Bangladesh—Strong economic performance but challenging outlook
    • Australia—Quarantine-free safe travel zone with New Zealand to boost some service industries
    • Nepal—Political volatility undermines economic prospects
    • Brazil—COVID-19 weighs on economic and political stability
  • World Risk Developments March 2021
    • Global—Falling international prices would hurt commodity exporters
    • Pacific—Tourism faces challenges and opportunities beyond pandemic
    • India—Fast recovery in 2021 as government ramps up spending
    • Global—Destabilising inflation risks limited by structural factors
    • Global—Debt raises global financial market risks
    • Myanmar—Political upheaval weakens economic prospects
  • World Risk Developments February 2021
    • World—Vaccine powered boost to activity is partial and uncertain
    • World—Trade rebound challenged by virus risks, shipping costs
    • Asia—Despite resilience, weak FDI to weigh on sustainable recovery
    • US—Fiscal stimulus to support economic recovery
    • China—Five-year plan highlights domestic goals, but risks higher debt
    • World—Bankruptcies to rise as policy support is removed
• World Risk Developments 2020
  • World Risk Developments December 2020
    • 2020 — Australian exports fall amid global economic recession
    • 2021 — Precarious, partial and uneven global economic recovery
    • Exports outlook — Another challenging year ahead
    • 2021 — Exceptional uncertainty
  • World Risk Developments November 2020
    • Emerging markets — Risks are high, but Australia’s major export markets recovering
    • Europe — New COVID-19 outbreak threatens double-dip recession
    • South Korea — Exports lead economic recovery, domestic demand lags
    • Asia — COVID-19 exacerbates inequality denting growth prospects
    • Australia — Metal ores a bright spot amid broad export decline
    • Saudi Arabia—Fiscal constraints may frustrate economic diversification
  • World Risk Developments October 2020
    • Indonesia — Reform package may improve long term investment climate
    • World — 2020 growth forecasts improve but economic scarring to worsen
    • Asia — Vietnam and Taiwan outperform the rest of Asia as exports grow
    • World — Public investment to fuel recovery amid low interest rates
    • UK—COVID-19 resurgence and no-deal Brexit risk to weaken potential growth
    • Argentina — Economic turmoil sees capital controls and debt restructure
  • World Risk Developments September 2020
    • World — Global economic recovery enters a slower phase
    • Japan — New leadership to continue ‘Abenomics’ pro-growth policies
    • India — COVID-19 drives record recession, drawn out recovery likely
    • Asia — Manufacturing on the rise, but risks to global trade remain high
    • Thailand — Rising protests and ebbing economy sour business climate
    • Australia — COVID-19 to dent agricultural exports despite easing drought
  • World Risk Developments August 2020
    • World — Slow tourism recovery will weigh on dependent economies
    • The Philippines — Severe and prolonged downturn amid virus woes
    • Sri Lanka — Election raises policy unity but pandemic-related economic and fiscal risks remain
    • Fiji - Construction to boost Australia's export prospects
    • Africa - COVID-19 pandemic undoes economic gains
    • Lebanon - Social unrest compounds deep economic and financial crisis
  • World Risk Developments July 2020
    • World — Persistent unemployment to drag on consumption exports
    • World — Disconnect between Main and Wall Street threatens recovery
    • Singapore — Rising mobility implies economic recovery
    • World — 2020 recession worse than feared, recovery highly uncertain
    • Australia — Resources exports resilient amid difficult external backdrop
    • Peru — Challenges balancing the economic and public health crises
  • World Risk Developments June 2020
    • Asia — Leading the global recovery out of the COVID-19 slump
    • India — COVID-19 pandemic accentuates economic vulnerabilities
    • Hong Kong — National security law threatens business attractiveness
    • Latin America — Surging COVID-19 cases creates risks and opportunities for Australian businesses
    • Emerging markets — Weaker remittances hit vulnerable households
  • World Risk Developments May 2020
    • China — Nascent signs of industrial recovery despite downside risks
    • Australia — Rising resources exports offsets slumping inbound travel
    • World — Dismantling global supply chains endangers global prosperity
    • EU — German court ruling may weaken European recovery and solidarity
    • Sub-Saharan Africa — Rising debt overhang will inhibit growth prospects
    • Sri Lanka — COVID-19 exacerbates severe economic and financial stress
  • World Risk Developments April 2020
    • World — Best case scenario sees COVID-19 cost US$9 trillion
    • Emerging Markets — COVID-19 threatens sovereign debt crisis
    • Australia — Business sentiment sours with export outlook
    • G20 — Policy stimulus will support return to growth once virus recedes
    • Indonesia — COVID-19 adds to economic and financial pressures
    • South Africa — Economic woes raise fiscal and external financing stress
  • World Risk Developments March 2020
    • World — COVID-19 takes mounting economic and financial toll
    • China — Domestic demand slumps on COVID-19 disruption
    • World — Oil price crash unlikely to boost global economy
    • World — Rising trend in global unrest frustrates trade and investment
    • Japan — Fiscal, meteorological and viral setbacks risk recession
    • Pakistan — Rising foreign exchange could increase export opportunities
  • World Risk Developments February 2020
    • Australia — COVID-19 impacts
    • Australia — Severe weather events hurt agriculture and tourism exports
    • Australia — US-China trade truce a positive for the global economy
    • India — Shallow economic recovery to follow credit crunch
    • Philippines — Infrastructure to bolster growth and business environment
    • Iran — Renewed geopolitical tensions frustrate economic potential
• World Risk Developments 2019
  • World Risk Developments December 2019
    • 2019 — Australian exports resilient amid global slowdown
    • 2020 — Precarious and muted global economic recovery
    • Export outlook – More moderate growth
    • Risks to the outlook — Skewed to the downside
  • World Risk Developments November 2019
    • Emerging markets — Risks abound, but Australia’s major export markets resilient
    • World — Asian regional trade deal defies increased global protectionism
    • China — Record Singles Day sales despite economic growth grinding lower
    • Asia — Ease of doing business gains boost Australian export outlook
    • Chile — Mass protests to dent growth and sour investment climate
    • Bangladesh — Sovereign bond to boost infrastructure and growth
  • World Risk Developments October 2019
    • World –Trade set to weaken further
    • Eurozone – Manufacturing weakness raises recession risk
    • Brazil – Tariff cuts have mixed implications for Australian exporters
    • China – African swine fever supports demand for Australian beef exports
    • Japan – Increased foreign investment scrutiny in sectors related to national security
    • Indonesia – Coal sector reforms will boost Indonesian exports
    • Australia – Falling dollar fails to support all Australian exporters
  • World Risk Developments September 2019
    • Argentina – Capital and exchange controls imposed
    • Indonesia – Capital city to move from Jakarta to East Kalimantan
    • Japan/South Korea – Trade dispute could have broad knock-on effects 
    • Australia – First current account surplus in 44 years
    • India – Productivity drive places focus on trade and investment
    • Philippines – Economic reforms aim to attract foreign professionals
    • Hong Kong – Protests disrupt the economy
  • World Risk Developments August 2019
    • US-China trade dispute—New round of escalation
    • UK—Increased chance of no-deal Brexit
    • Trade—One left standing on WTO Appellate Body
    • Japan—Structural reforms buoy growth outlook
    • Kenya—Judges halt first coal-fired power plant
  • World Risk Developments July 2019
    • Globe—Trade tensions sap growth
    • India—Record number of visitors supports Australia’s tourism industry
    • Singapore—Supply chains hurt by trade dispute
    • LNG—Chinese demand on the rise
    • Name Africa—Population growth set to overtake Asia
    • Pakistan—IMF US$6b bailout
  • World Risk Developments June 2019
    • Australia—Robust trade performance in 2018
    • New South Wales—Chinese demand supports a surge in pharmaceutical exports
    • Victoria—A mixed bag for food and fibre exports
    • Queensland—A resilient beef and tourism industry
    • South Australia—Copper exports outshine the agriculture sector
    • Western Australia—Iron ore exports stagnate with LNG taking the lead
    • Tasmania—Riding a wave of strong export growth
  • World Risk Developments May 2019
    • Korea—Softer growth poses risks to agricultural exporters
    • Indonesia—Policy continuity the best outcome for foreign investors
    • ASEAN—Trade switching from the US-China trade impasse offers a silver lining
    • India—Prime Minister Modi likely to retain power; reforms are expected to continue
    • Australia—Investment abroad remains concentrated in developed economies
    • South Africa—Re-elected President Ramaphosa pledges to fight corruption
  • World Risk Developments April 2019
    • World—Growth slowdown continues amid trade tensions
    • China—Historically high corporate bond defaults underscores financial risks
    • WTO—New agreement provides opportunities for Australian businesses
    • UK—Brexit extension likely to breed further uncertainty
    • Thailand—Risks to policy uncertainty rise after election
    • Turkey—Electoral setback a test to Erdogan’s economic strategy
  • World Risk Developments March 2019
    • China—New stimulus amid economic slowdown sees longer-term risks
    • Myanmar—Security risks erode export opportunities
    • Russia—Potential new US sanctions mar the muted outlook
    • Low income countries—Increased debt levels raise vulnerabilities
    • Australia—Drought weighs on agricultural exports
    • Nigeria—Economic prospects remain dim despite a Buhari win
  • World Risk Developments February 2019
    • World—increased uncertainty sees global economy lose momentum
    • China—foreign investment law may appease US, improve business climate
    • US—impact of government shutdown on Australian exports minimal
    • Emerging Markets—heightened corruption challenges the export environment
    • Asia—e-commerce boom opens new export opportunities
    • UK—Brexit uncertainty saps economy
    • Asia—a preview of 2019 elections
    • Argentina—President Macri’s fate rests on economic turnaround