World Risk Developments December 2017

In our final bulletin for the year, we look back at 2017 and forward to 2018… 

The global economy is enjoying a synchronised recovery, but heightened risks persist. The IMF expects global growth to accelerate to 3.6% this year and reach 3.7% in 2018, in line with the 1990-2007 average. Of the largest 50 economies that generate 94% of global output, not one is forecast to contract in 2017, 2018 or 2019. India and China are the global pacesetters. But the recovery is not complete. In particular, while policy stimulus is supporting the upturn, wages growth remains modest. Financial vulnerabilities and high debt could undermine medium term prospects, as could a raft of policy mishaps and political shocks. We look at the tidal shifts of 2017 below, then discuss 14 risks that lurk in 2018—10 to the downside and 4 to the up.

  • 2017 economic and trade acceleration
  • Exporters navigated changes to country risk settings
  • Exporters also benefited from new export opportunities
  • Global outlook for 2018—peak expansion
  • Australia's export outlook
  • Risks to the 2018 outlook
  • Upside opportunities to the 2018 outlook


Cassandra Winzenried, Chief Economist

Fred Gibson, Senior Economist



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